Top 10 activities and predictions in mobile 2009 to 2010 by Magnus Jern

To predict the future we must first understand the past. Therefore this year’s top 10 list consists of the top 5 activities in mobile 2009 and our top 5 predictions for 2010 says Magnus Jern, CEO of Golden Gekko

Top 5 Mobile Activities 2009

 

1. The year of mobile marketing
Every year for the last 6 years some analyst, media agency, operator or handset manufacturer have forecasted that the next year will be the year of mobile marketing. We are happy to say that from our perspective 2009 was the year when mobile marketing took off. The past 12 months have been incredible in terms of interest around mobile marketing despite a very difficult financial environment for the advertising industry.

The tipping point had nothing to do with particular media spend on mobile or reaching critical mass in consumer uptake of mobile services however. Instead the main indicator to us was that for the first time brands and businesses across the board took a spontaneous interest in mobile marketing. The number of briefs directly from brands and agencies sky rocked compared to previous years and although not every brief resulted in a project we now know that the demand is there. The second indicator was that Google acquired Admob for 750m USD showing that the major internet players are now getting serious about mobile.
Finally we can say goodbye to the year of mobile marketing and concentrate on building a long term profitable marketing channel together with partners and customers.

2. Shift from advertising to marketing
In the last couple of years we have moved from a world with impressions to a world with engagements and 2009 was the break-through year with more mobile marketing budgets being invested in the mobile websites and apps than display advertising including search. This trend is in contradiction to most forecasts by analysts such as Gartner, Strategy Analytics, Yankee Group and eMarketer. In reality it has meant that the growth in mobile display advertising was very small in 2009 despite the fact that overall mobile marketing budgets increased with somewhere from 20-50% depending on source.  We believe that the trend is more positive as it shows that brands want to engage customers and not only hit them with ads.

3. Appstore explosion
2009 was the year of app mania.
•    Apple appstore hit 2 billion downloads and 100.000 available apps
•    Marketers across the world started talking about iPhone apps as the must do activity in any digital marketing strategy
•    A myriad of new appstores were launched including Blackberry App World, Windows Market, Orange Appstore, Samsung Appstore, Vodafone 360 and many, many more
•    Existing appstores such as Getjar, Mobango, Mobile9 grew exponentially
•    The Android appstore started off slowly but accelerated and reach 20.000 apps end of the year
•    Innovative new app storefronts & reviews sites launched including mplayit on Facebook
In summary:  “There’s an app for that!”

4. Increased budgets
With increased attention of mobile marketing among marketing planners and brand managers budgets increased despite the tough financial markets as mobile was seen as a necessity to differentiate or in some cases to keep up with the competition. The biggest mobile budget of the year was most likely Nokia to promote Ovi but other more traditional brands such as Volkswagen and Coca Cola also assigned low to medium 6 digit budgets.

5. Smartphone craze
The main driver of the app mania and increase in mobile browsing was continued uptake in smart phones sales lead by Symbian, Blackberry and iPhone. Marketers were surprised by Q3 figures showing that iPhone is still number 3 in sales despite 80% of the media attention. What it shows is that the battle is not won yet.

Source: Canalys. 2009 unit figures calculated from reported market share in new sales

Top 5 Predictions for 2010

1. Improved efficiency in mobile service development
In 2009 the cost of mobile app and mobile website development went up substantially due to a combination of lack of skilled resources and an immature market. In 2010 we expect to see more standardized tools, enhanced processes and improved efficiency as mobile becomes integrated into the overall marketing strategy. We hope and believe that this means that more time and resources can be spent on critical elements of the user experience of mobile including design and usability testing.

2. Mobile becomes a business critical platform
With companies starting to generate substantial amounts of business, the mobile platforms becomes a business critical service and not just a campaign channel. Companies such as Pizza Hut, BMW, Coca Cola, McDonald’s, Lufthansa, etc have already managed drive acquisitions as well as new revenues from he mobile and the focus will continue during 2010. This may also slow development down for a while as departments’ battle about the ownership of budgets and resources but the long term implication is that the mobile platform will become as important as the web.

3. Increased mobile platform fragmentation
In 2010 most marketers will shift from doing an iPhone app for PR value to planning mobile services and campaigns that will reach the widest possible audience within their target segments. This means delivering across multiple mobile platforms (iPhone, Android, Java, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, etc) and channels (apps, mobile websites and messaging/SMS) which a high degree of complexity. With the number of mobile platforms still on the rise (Samsung Bada, Vodafone 360 widgets, Palm Pre, etc) mobile specialists will have a big responsibility in making a complex environment simple without dumbing it down. The starting point of any mobile marketing strategy to tackle fragmentation will be to build a mobile website that works across all platforms as the baseline but this won’t meet the consumer demand for a great user experience.

4. iPhone growth slows down, Android picks up and others stay neutral
The growth of iPhone sales slows down as mobile operators reduce subsidies and promotions for the device whereas Android with a more mobile operator friendly model picks up with new devices from LG, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson and Motorola. The operators will also continue to promote other platforms such as Blackberry, Windows Mobile and LiMo as well as feature phones to avoid domination by Google.

5. Mobile network collapse under traffic load
AT&T has seen a 5000% increase in mobile data network traffic over the last 3 years and with only 3-4% penetration the iPhone made up 50% of all mobile data traffic in the US during 2009. O2 in the UK has seen a similar increase in traffic resulting in network outages, slow network speeds and customer dissatisfaction. At the same time mobile operators will not and cannot keep up with the demand due to shareholder pressure to keep capex investments at a minimum and maximize short term profits. Our prediction is that mobile network reliability and performance in 2010 will get considerably worse with an even greater increase in smartphone sales, uplift in usage and more mobile video & music services launched. The short term solution by operators will be to shift more traffic to wifi networks but with the lack of open wifi infrastructure in Europe this won’t help much. Longer term capacity will build up thanks to competitive forces and consumer demand for a reliable service.